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Senin, 23 Februari 2009

Global crisis impact towards economics in Indonesia

rEspon mu... 
Global crisis impact towards economics in Indonesia 
(in rupiah exchange rate sector, banking, and property) 
 
 
background 
monetary crisis at united America 
United America is assumed economics direction at world, but at the moment experience monetary crisis. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, as axis giant financial institution, congratulation face axis economic recession after terrorist attack year 2001. they are congratulation face oil embargo consequence world economic recession OPEC year 1973 and congratulation face two world war. they also congratulation face world economic recession year 1930-an often called “the great depression”, axis finance crisis consequence in 1929. 
but, they not congratulation face House Purchasing Credit Crisis (KPR – Kredit Pembelian Rumah) subprime at axis in 2007/2008. mean, fall it several biggest financial institution at world indication that axis economy troubleshoot and world now really far mortallyer from our estimate is previous.

from explanation above, we have known that monetary crisis at united America recently epidemic to various continent and ascertained mortallyer from crisis that ever happen to like monetary crisis that bump into asia in the year 1997/1998. 
 
global crisis 
monetary crisis at this united America evokes impact incredible globally. this matter can be seen from world investor panic in their effort resque their money at stocks market. they are crowded sell share so that free fall stock market. since beginning 2008, stock market china plummet 57%, Indians 52%, Indonesia 41% (before the activity is stopped for temporary), and Europe zone 37%. temporary debt mail market plummet, developing countries currency is weak and commodities price plummet, even less after spekulator oil commodities will evaluate that economic recession will decrease world energy consumption. 

At axis, after see stock market wall street then decrease, final congress approves program rescuings financial sector (troubled asset recovery program - tarp) in the amount us$ 700 milliards that submitted by government. but, because the long policies negotiation between government and congress, dissapointed investor see politicians at Washington doesn't has sense of crisis. 

Capital market crisis (share and debt mail) global basically only influence capital market investor. but global banking crisis can influence world economic real sector, belong Indonesia. story kernel that axis banking sector plummet, capital deficiency, and dislike to lend the dollar, belong to international banks at Europe and Asia.


Finally, dollar deficit international banking to lends to world entrepreneurs that want dollar for the investment (for engine import, basic commodity, and as it), belong in Indonesia. 

We have known that axis dollar has been kernel currency in the world of effort. finally, although axis central bank rate (or fed funds target rate) until is demoted to 1,5%, rate of interest London inter-bank offer rate (Libor, as rate of interest standard that used by economy executant, jump up sharp. 

complex problem that now, the stopped payment system and global credit canalization as 'oxygen for business world the breath. central bank rate can low, but credit rate of interest for business executant, even so can loan, very tall because fear banking lends the fund. follow economist, actually that thing be global banking sector danger. so, not plummet it stocks market, actually can paralyse world economic growth slowly. 
final, world central bank understands how the important do wisdom co-ordination. seven central bank (belongs us federal reserve, European central bank, bank of England and bank of Canadian) final cut the flower tribe 0,5%. this be central bank rate wisdom the time first is done concurrently in big scale. happen at year 2008 this. 

something else that central bank co-ordination wisdom and rest world government must be attributed to fulfill three targets. first, restore to return banking system and global payment paralysed so that international fund circulation can normal return - and bank can give credit again.

second, take outside asset that has problem (especially debt mail kpr subprime) from axis banking and enlarge banking capital so that more can give credit in number that can support economy growth. 

third, world central bank must dare then demote rate of interest (to help to unburden credit flower) and, more important, government must enlarge the expense for infrastructure development and give stimulus economy - because private investor dislikes to correlating investment between two fires liquidity. 

wisdom above can success, can also fail. the mentioned haves because has global scale never is done in history, but risk the happening of mortally world economic recession bigger if central bank and world government doesn't do anything. 
if success, when will the result will appear? Quickest, fastest two year. mean, axis economic recession and Europe mortally (world economic growth temporary will be slow) in 2009, before recover in 2010. why? because axis economy unsightly points and Europe not yet reached: for example, go down it axis property price (crisis trigger subprime) not yet end (house total not yet sold to still too many), factory stills to do work connection severance (PHK – Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja) mass and still many banks that must bankrupt. 
besides, impact stimulus monetary wisdom and fiscal really eat time more than one year. if world economic recover new 2010, when does recover global stocks market? Quickest, fastest semester 1, 2009, because stocks market usually be strong 6-9 month before recover economy real sector.

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